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2014 Was NOT the Warmest Year on Record | Heartlander Magazine

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 4:06 PM
The science journal Nature trumpets “2014 was the hottest year on record” and cites the Japan Meteorological Agency, the World Meteorological Organization, and…

2014 Was NOT the Warmest Year on Record | Heartlander Magazine

Stuff We Wish We Wrote - Homepage - January 19, 2015, 4:06 PM
The science journal Nature trumpets “2014 was the hottest year on record” and cites the Japan Meteorological Agency, the World Meteorological Organization, and…

Merchants of Smear

Somewhat Reasonable - January 19, 2015, 3:52 PM

I want YOU to believe my alarmist hype about the climate.

Manmade climate disaster proponents know the Saul Alinksy community agitator playbook by heart. In a fight, almost anything goes. Never admit error; just change your terminology and attack again.  Expand your base, by giving potential allies financial and political reasons to join your cause. Pick “enemy” targets, freeze them, personalize them, polarize them and vilify them.

The “crisis” was global cooling, until Earth stopped cooling around 1976. It was global warming, until our planet stopped warming around 1995. The alarmist mantra then became “climate change” or “climate disruption” or “extreme weather.” Always manmade. Since Earth’s climate often fluctuates, and there are always weather extremes, such claims can never be disproven, certainly not to the alarmists’ satisfaction.

Alarmists say modern civilization’s “greenhouse gas” emissions are causing profound climate change – by replacing the powerful, interconnected solar and other natural forces that have driven climate and weather patterns and events since Earth and human history began. They insist that these alleged human-induced changes are already happening and are already disastrous. Pope Francis says we are already witnessing a “great cataclysm” for our planet, people and environment.

However, there is no cataclysm – now or imminent – even as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have gone well past the alleged 350 parts-per-million “tipping point,” and now hover near 400 ppm (0.04%). There has been no warming since 1995, and recent winters have been among the coldest in centuries in the United Kingdom and continental Europe, despite steadily rising levels of plant-fertilizing CO2.

As of January 12, 2015, it has been 3,365 days (9.2 years!) since a Category 3-5 hurricane hit the US mainland. This is by far the longest such stretch since record-keeping began in 1900, if not since the American Civil War. Sea levels are barely rising, at a mere seven inches per century. Antarctic sea ice is expanding to new records; Arctic ice has also rebounded. Polar bears are thriving. In fact:

Every measure of actual evidence contradicts alarmist claims and computer model predictions. No matter how fast or sophisticated those models are, feeding them false or unproven assumptions about CO2 and manipulated or “homogenized” temperature data still yields garbage output, scenarios and predictions.

That’s why alarmists also intoned the “peak oil” and “resource depletion” mantra – until fracking produced gushers of new supplies. So now they talk about “sustainable development,” which really means “whatever we advocate is sustainable; whatever we despise and oppose is unsustainable.”

USEPA Administrator Gina McCarthy also ignores climate realities. Her agency is battling coal-fired power plants (and will go after methane and gas-fired generators next), to “stop climate change” and “trigger a range of investments” in innovation and a “clean power future.” What she really means is: Smart businesses will support our agenda. If they do, we’ll give them billions in taxpayer and consumer money. If they oppose us, we will crush them. And when we say innovation, we don’t mean fracking.

As to responding to these inconvenient climate realities, or debating them with the thousands of scientists who reject the “dangerous manmade climate change” tautology, she responds: “The time for arguing about climate change has passed. The vast majority of scientists agree that our climate is changing.”

This absurd, dismissive assertion underscores citizen investigative journalist Russell Cook’s findings, in his perceptive and fascinating Merchants of Smear report. The climate catastrophe narrative survives only because there has been virtually no debate over its scientific claims, he explains. The public rarely sees the extensive evidence debunking and destroying climate cataclysm assertions, because alarmists insist that “the science is settled,” refuse to acknowledge or debate anyone who says otherwise, and claim skeptical scientists get paid by oil companies, tainting anything they say.

The fossil-fuel-payoff claim is classic Alinsky: Target and vilify your “enemies.”

“No one has ever offered an iota of evidence” that oil interests paid skeptical researchers to change their science to fit industry views, “despite legions of people repeating the claim,” Cook notes. “Never has so much – the very survival of the global warming issue – depended on so little – a paper-thin accusation from people having hugely troubling credibility issues of their own.” The tactic is intended to marginalize manmade global warming skeptics. But the larger problem is mainstream media malfeasance: reporters never question “climate crisis” dogmas … or allegations that “climate denier” scientists are willing to fabricate studies questioning “settled science” for a few grand in illicit industry money.

Pay no attention to the real-world climate or those guys behind the curtain, we are told. Just worry about climate monsters conjured up by their computer models. “Climate change deniers” are Big Oil lackeys – and you should turn a blind eye to the billions of dollars in government, industry and foundation money paid annually to researchers and modelers who subscribe to manmade climate disruption claims.

In fact, the US government alone spent over $106 billion in taxpayer funds on alarmist climate research between 2003 and 2010. In return, the researchers refuse to let other scientists, IPCC reviewers or FOIA investigators see their raw data, computer codes or CO2-driven algorithms. The modelers and scientists claim the information is private property, even though taxpayers paid for the work and the results are used to justify energy, job and economy-killing policies and regulations. Uncle Sam spends billions more every year on renewable energy programs that raise energy prices, cost jobs and reduce living standards.

None of these recipients wants to derail this money train, by entertaining doubts about the “climate crisis.” Al Gore won’t debate anyone or even address audience questions he hasn’t preapproved.

As to claims of a “97% consensus,” one source is responses from 75 of 77 “climate scientists” who were selected from a 2010 survey that went to 10,257 scientists. Apparently, the analysts didn’t like the “consensus” of the other 10,180 scientists. Another study, by a University of Queensland professor, claimed that 97% of published scientific papers agree that humans caused at least half of the 1.3o F (0.7o C) global warming since 1950; in reality, only 41 of the 11,944 papers cited explicitly said this.

“Skeptical” scientists do not say climate doesn’t change or humans don’t affect Earth’s climate to some (small) degree. However, more than 1,000 climate scientists, 31,000 American scientists and 48% of US meteorologists say there is no evidence that we are causing dangerous warming or climate change.

Two recent United States Senate staff reports shed further light on other shady dealings that underlie the “dangerous manmade climate change” house of cards. Chains of Environmental Command reveals how Big Green activists and foundations collude with federal agencies to develop renewable energy and anti-hydrocarbon policies. EPA’s Playbook Unveiled shines a bright light on the fraud, deceit and secret science behind the agency’s sue-and-settle lawsuits, pollution standards and CO2 regulations.

The phony “solutions” to the imaginary “climate crisis” hurt our children and grandchildren, by driving up energy prices, threatening electricity reliability, thwarting job creation, adversely impacting people’s health and welfare, and subsidizing wind turbines that slaughter birds and bats. They perpetuate poverty, misery, disease and premature death in poor African and Asian countries, by blocking construction of fossil fuel power plants that would bring electricity to 1.3 billion people who still do not have it.

The caterwauling over climate change has nothing to do with real-world warming, cooling, storms or droughts. It has everything to do with an ideologically driven hatred of hydrocarbons, capitalism and economic development, and a callous disdain for middle class workers and impoverished Third World families that “progressive” activists, politicians and bureaucrats always claim to care so much about.

House and Senate committees should use studies cited above as a guide for requiring a robust pollution, health and climate debate. They should compel EPA, climate modelers and scientists to testify under oath, present their evidence and respond to tough questions. Congress should then block any regulations that do not conform to the scientific method and basic standards of honesty, transparency and solid proof.

Categories: On the Blog

NOAA and NASA Lied on Temperature Records

Somewhat Reasonable - January 19, 2015, 3:03 PM

During the 2012 presidential election, Rasmussen Report’s poll conducted between November 1st and 3rd showed 49% of likely voters supported Barack Obama and an equal number supported Mitt Romney. But by Rasmussen’s next poll, covering the November 2 to 4th time frame, the Governor led 49% to 48%.

This change didn’t result in great celebration in the Romney camp.

Neither were opinion leaders suddenly forecasting a Romney victory based on such a small gain. They understood that the margins of error of the surveys were greater than the supposed change. The apparent increase in Romney’s support may not have reflected any real change in public opinion at all.

Most people easily understand this concept during elections. But when it comes to climate change, the public’s appreciation of uncertainty seems to vanish. This is partly due to intense propaganda from official government bodies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

For example, last week NOAA headlined their home page, “It’s official: 2014 was Earth’s warmest year on record.”

NASA proclaimed in their January 16th news release video, “2014 was the hottest year on record.”

But these announcements are effectively lies.

NOAA’s own data shows that the record for the year was set by only four one-hundredths of a degree Celsius over the previous record warmest years, 2010 and 2005, while the uncertainty in the temperature statistic is nine one-hundredths of a degree, or more than twice the amount by which the supposed record was set (NASA showed a record being set in 2014 by only two one-hundredths of a degree). In fact, NOAA temperature statistics for seven previous years — 2013, 2010, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 1998 — are all within nine one-hundredths of a degree of 2014’s level.

So they all tie with 2014. No new record was set.

The same applies to NOAA’s announcement that, “December 2014 was warmest December on record for globe.”

December 2014 was one one-hundredths of a degree hotter than December 2006, the previous warmest December. But the uncertainty is seven one-hundredths of a degree, seven times the amount by which the supposed record was set. December 2003 was only one one-hundredths of a degree cooler than 2006, so the December temperature statistic for all three years — 2014, 2006, and 2003 — are effectively equal. No new December record was set.

Contrary to supporting the notion that global warming continues unabated, NOAA’s data reinforces the observation that we are in the midst of an 18-year pause in planetary warming.

If NOAA and NASA made a big deal of a temperature record set by a few hundredths of a degree, many in the public would laugh, appreciating that such small changes cannot even be felt, let alone present problems.

So instead the government emphasizes the amount by which the new temperature statistics exceed the “the 20th century average.” But to know this difference to hundredths of a degree, as they claim to do, requires that we also know the average for the 20th century to hundredths of a degree. And this in turn requires that we know the so-called global average temperature in each year during the 20th century to a similarly high degree of accuracy.

Historical climatologist Dr. Tim Ball, former professor at the University of Winnipeg, explains, “Typical accuracies of temperature measurements throughout the 20th century were between one and one-half degree Celsius. Therefore it makes no sense whatsoever for NASA and NOAA to claim differences from a 20th century average in hundredths of a degree.”

Ball explains that even modern “instrumental data is inadequate. There is are virtually no data for the 70% of Earth’s surface that is oceans.

There is practically no data for the 19% of land area that are mountains, 20% that are desert, 20% boreal forest, 20% grasslands, and 6% tropical rain forest.”

“So NASA just invents data to complete the picture,” continues Ball.

“They do this by making the ridiculous claim that a single station temperature represents all land temperature within a 1200 km radius region.”

So, it is not possible for NASA and NOAA to determine a meaningful average temperature statistic for the planet as a whole based on surface readings, as they pretend to do. It is only through the use of satellite-based instruments that we can hope to get a meaningful overview of planetary conditions. And satellite data shows that 2014 did not set a record at all, with computed temperatures statistics merely extending the current plateau.

NOAA chief scientist Richard Spinrad boasted in a January 16 news release that “NOAA provides decision makers with timely and trusted science-based information about our changing world…”

In reality, Spinrad’s agency is merely about PR spin when it comes to global temperature records. Science be damned.

[First published at the Pasadena Citizen.]

Categories: On the Blog

Patterico's Pontifications » Danger Will Robinson: Free Speech Threatened by Terrorism Forum and Net Neutrality

Tech Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:32 PM
Those who worry about the federal government stomping on conservatives’ free speech have good reason to be worried today. Obama’s upcoming “international forum”…

How to keep the Internet free, open, dynamic, and innovative - AEI

Tech Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:31 PM
January 15, 2015 10:41 am | AEIdeas View related content: Pethokoukis Image Credit: Shutterstock What’s the best way to keep the Internet open to new…

Did the GOP cave on net neutrality? - Hot Air

Tech Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:30 PM
The times they are a’ changing, my friends. Way back about… two months ago, Ted Cruz had this to say about net neutrality. “What happens when government starts…

Federal Regs Making it Difficult for Members of Military to Borrow Money

FIRE Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:26 PM
Ever since the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB, proponents of robust economic growth and sensible regulation have been trying to…

The U.S. Recovery Is Finally Strengthening. Who Deserves the Credit? , by James Pethokoukis, National Review

FIRE Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:25 PM
The improving U.S. economy will make absolutely no one forget the Long Boom of the Reagan-Clinton-Gingrich years. Wage growth is stagnant, and too few Americans…

46 'Significant Changes' to Obamacare Have Already Been Made

Health Care Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:21 PM
The Republicans in congress have some plans for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and the Supreme Court will be considering the possibility that that language…

H&R Block: ‘No One Can Understand’ New Obamacare Tax Code

Health Care Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:21 PM
Richard Pollock is the former Washington bureau chief of PJTV. H&R Block, the nation’s largest retail tax preparation company warns that the newly released…

Top Obamacare Chief Resigns in Wake of Phony Figures

Health Care Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:20 PM
More Obama administration liars figuring.

Does this chart explain why Dems want to massively tax Wall Street?

Budget and Tax Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:17 PM
January 12, 2015 12:59 pm | AEIdeas View related content: Pethokoukis Huffington Post The $1.2 trillion middle-class tax cut plan from Rep. Chris Van Hollen…

The bipartisan case for ending the corporate income tax

Budget and Tax Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:17 PM
December 30, 2014 2:31 pm | AEIdeas More options: Share, Mark as favorite View related content: Pethokoukis Image Credit: shutterstock.com There are number of…

Obama wants to double your capital gains taxes

Budget and Tax Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:17 PM
Savings is overrated when the government is here to help President Obama will lay out an official policy of picking winners and losers in this Tuesday’s State…

On the Biases Caused by Omissions in the 2014 NOAA State of the Climate Report

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:13 PM
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale [Update: Corrected a few typos in the paragraph before Figure 4. My thanks to rogerknights.] I hadn’t read the NOAA State of the…

The Merchants of Smear

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:13 PM
Obama, Gore other climate alarmists refuse to debate, but love to vilify – and love their money Guest essay by Paul Driessen Manmade climate disaster proponents…

Gavin Schmidt now admits NASA are only 38% sure 2014 was the hottest year « JoNova

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:10 PM
I said the vaguest scientists in the world lie by omission, and it’s what they don’t say that gives them away. The “hottest ever” press release didn’t tell us…

New Paper On Sea Level Rise Adjusts The Data To Match The Models

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:09 PM
Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT: By Paul Homewood http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14093.html I meant to have a…

Breaking: NOAA, NASA quietly conceded: 2014 was probably not the warmest year on record

Environment Suite - In The News - January 19, 2015, 1:08 PM
Read the Full Article Former Harvard Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl: ‘According to NOAA, the probability that a different year than 2014 was the warmest one was 52%.…
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