Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Lower Probability of Extreme Climate Change

Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Lower Probability of Extreme Climate Change
November 29, 2011

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment and energy policy at The Heartland Institute, and... (read full bio)

A newly publishede study in the peer-reviewed journal Science shows climate has historically been less sensitive to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide than United Nations computer models are programmed to assume. According to the Science study, a full doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide will likely cause 2.3 degrees Celsius of warming rather than the UN-assumed 3.0 degrees of warming. (For context, since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen only 40 percent.)

“[T]hese results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought,” the Science study reports.

While the 2.3 degree prediction is still likely too high, it continues a consistent trend of newer global warming models predicting less future warming than had been previously predicted.

Reading statements from some of the most media-prominent alarmists, one would think they never predicted much warming in the first place.

“I was not terribly worried about runaway climate change before this. After all, we know that the Earth’s had much higher CO2 in the past (and the temperature were correspondingly much higher), and the Earth did not turn into Venus,” prominent global warming alarmist Andy Dessler told the Houston Chronicle.

It is certainly helpful to have reached agreement on such an important scientific point.

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment and energy policy at The Heartland Institute, and... (read full bio)