Alarmist Models Wrong on Arctic Treeline Predictions

Alarmist Models Wrong on Arctic Treeline Predictions
March 22, 2012

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly... (read full bio)

The Arctic treeline is moving northward more slowly than the 2 kilometers per year predicted by alarmist computer models, according to a newly released study by Cambridge University.

“To generalize our results, the tree line is definitely moving north on average but we do not see any evidence for rates as big as 2 kilometers per year anywhere along the Arctic rim,” said lead researcher Gareth Rees in an accompanying press release. “Where we have the most detailed information, our results suggest that a rate of around 100 meters per year is more realistic. In some places, the tree line is actually moving south. The predictions of a loss of 40 percent of the tundra by the end of the century is probably far too alarming.”

“What we are saying is that when you take the step from a climate model to a vegetation model, we may be doing that in a way that exaggerates what is actually happening,” he said. “Furthermore, the response around the Arctic rim is by no means uniform.”

Expect to see this study prominently covered in the mainstream media – or not.

The Cambridge University press release is available at http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/invading-trees/

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly... (read full bio)