Issue #69: NOAA Climate Investigator Says No Link Between Sandy, Warming
Martin Hoerling, who chairs the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate variability research program and oversees NOAA’s Climate Scene Investigators, debunked the assertion that global warming played a significant role in Hurricane Sandy.
“[N]either the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades,” Hoerling told environmental writer Andrew Revkin.
Hoerling further explained, “In this case, the immediate cause is most likely little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent the west Atlantic in October … nothing unusual with that. On rare occasions their timing is such as to result in an interaction which can lead to an extreme event along the eastern seaboard.”
“Great events, like this meteorological one, can happen with little cause(s),” Hoerling noted in the Huffington Post. “Individually, neither the tropical storm nor the extratropical storm that embraced it, were unusual. What makes this a rare, perhaps once in a lifetime event, is the fortuity of their timely (“untimely” as far as most are concerned who sit in harms way) intersection.”
The Huffington Post reported that Hoerling’s colleague Randall M. Dole said the convergence of events that made Sandy a superstorm was just “random bad luck.”
IN THIS ISSUE
Scientists line up to say no link between warming, Sandy … October hurricane strikes becoming less frequent … Droughts were more severe during colder climate … Curry reports no consensus on consensus
SCIENTISTS LINE UP TO SAY NO LINK BETWEEN WARMING, SANDY
Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are lining up to debunk the notion that global warming was a significant factor regarding Hurricane Sandy. Meteorologist Anthony Watts presents an illuminating table comparing the activists who claims a global warming link and the diverse range of scientists who agree there is no link.
SOURCE: Watts Up With That?
OCTOBER HURRICANE STRIKES BECOMING LESS FREQUENT
October hurricane strikes are significantly less common in recent decades than was the case during the nineteenth century and early twentieth century, NOAA records show. Steven Goddard presents the data in chart and bar graph form on his Real Science Web site.
SOURCE: Real Science
DROUGHTS WERE MORE SEVERE DURING COLDER CLIMATE
The North America Great Plains experienced several megadroughts lasting up to 50 years each between 1100 and 1500 AD, when temperatures cooled during the Little Ice Age, scientists report in the peer-reviewed Journal of Climate. “Tree ring based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Central Plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These ‘megadroughts’ had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events,” the scientists report.
CURRY REPORTS NO CONSENSUS ON CONSENSUS
Georgia Tech climate professor Judith Curry, often described as a “lukewarmist” for agreeing with many United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings but arguing against alarmist sensationalism that oversells the science, has just published a compelling paper noting the lack of scientific consensus on global warming. The alleged IPCC consensus is not a real one, Curry reports, but merely a manufactured one that distorts the science.
SOURCE: Climate Etc.