Real-World Data Show Warming Is Modest, Beneficial
Climate Change Weekly #74
It has been nearly 25 years since James Hansen first regaled Congress with predictions of imminent global warming doom and gloom. At the time, the Earth had only recently emerged from a 30-year cooling period and projections of future warming had little empirical data to back them up. Accordingly, computer models ruled the day.
Now, 25 years later, scientists have enough data to test warming projections versus real-world observational data. The real-world data indicate global warming will be more modest and beneficial than feared.
Wall Street Journal columnist Matt Ridley published an overview this week of the empirical evidence indicating global warming is occurring at a modest pace and is benefiting human welfare. Ridley documents that a full doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would raise temperatures by merely 1.6 degrees Celsius, much less than the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate of 3.0 degrees Celsius. Given that it takes much more than a century to double atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by less than half since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution), global temperatures are likely to rise by less than 1.0 degrees Celsius this century.
If the modest pace of warming continues, Ridley explains, “It will actually do net good – that much the IPCC scientists have already agreed upon in the last IPCC report. Rainfall will increase slightly, growing seasons will lengthen, Greenland’s ice cap will melt only very slowly, and so on.”
SOURCE: Wall Street Journal
IN THIS ISSUE
IPCC graph shows models predict too much warming … Africa continues to benefit from global warming … Methane increases not accelerating despite alarmist anecdotes … No increase in global hurricane strikes … Revkin: Carbon tax will have little impact on warming
IPCC GRAPH SHOWS MODELS PREDICT TOO MUCH WARMING
Global temperatures are rising at a much slower pace than projected by IPCC computer models, climate scientist Patrick Michaels explains in his weekly Forbes.com column. To illustrate his point, Michaels presents a powerful graph from a leaked IPCC report showing IPCC computer models consistently predicting more warming than has later occurred in the real world. The graph is particularly important, Michaels explains, because IPCC has a history of removing inconvenient evidence that indicates merely modest warming. “I’ll predict [this graph] does not see the light of day when the final report is released next year,” Michaels explains.
AFRICA CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GLOBAL WARMING
Africa continues to benefit from global warming despite an African NGO officer’s claims to the contrary this week in a high-profile Forbes.com column. Michel Nasibu claimed global warming is drying up the African continent in an “apocalyptic phenomenon.” Nevertheless, evidence shows global warming is benefiting African soil moisture and crop production. Nasibu’s cited sources do not show any empirical evidence of more frequent or severe African drought, and instead rely on unsupported assertions and admittedly “unreliable” computer models.
METHANE INCREASES NOT ACCELERATING DESPITE ALARMIST ANECDOTES
Atmospheric methane concentrations are rising more slowly than IPCC projections and are not accelerating at all, meteorologist Anthony Watts reports. The modest nature of atmospheric methane accumulation is important because global warming alarmists and their media allies frequently call attention to anecdotal incidents of methane releases and falsely claim this is creating a global warming “tipping point.”
SOURCE: Watts Up With That?
NO INCREASE IN GLOBAL HURRICANE STRIKES
Global hurricane data show no increase in hurricane strikes during recent decades, climate scientist Roger Pielke Jr. reports. According to a paper Pielke coauthored with scientists Jessica Weinkle and Ryan Maue, “the world is actually in the midst of a very low period in tropical cyclone landfalls.” Also, “the period before 1970 saw more intense hurricane landfalls than the period since.”
SOURCE: Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog
REVKIN: CARBON TAX WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WARMING
With China, India, and other developing nations rapidly increasing their use of coal-powered electricity, a carbon tax in the United States and other Western democracies will have little impact on global temperatures, alarmist science writer Andrew Revkin explains. “Anyone making the case that some magical application of a carbon price, in the United States or elsewhere, can ride to the rescue of the climate system is missing the primacy of real-time energy needs over long-term climate concerns,” writes Revkin.
SOURCE: Andrew Revkin