Climate Models Performing Poorly Compared to Actual Temperatures

Climate Models Performing Poorly Compared to Actual Temperatures
April 19, 2013

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly... (read full bio)

Climate Change Weekly #88

Climate models supporting predictions of rapid global warming during the next century have performed miserably predicting global temperatures during the past two decades, according to a just-published comparison of model predictions and real-world temperatures. A spaghetti graph comparing 44 climate models with real-world temperature measurements shows every one of the 44 models expected more warming during the past two decades than actually occurred.

Climate scientist Dr. Roy W. Spencer explains the most likely reason for the divergence between model predictions and real-world temperatures: “the real climate system is not as sensitive to increasing CO2 as the models are programmed to be.”

“If I am correct, then we will continue to see little warming into the future,” Spencer observes. “Additional evidence for lower climate sensitivity in the above plot is the observed response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: the temporary temperature dip in 1992–93, and subsequent recovery, is weaker in the observations than in the models. This is exactly what would be predicted with lower climate sensitivity.”

SOURCE: Dr. Roy Spencer


IN THIS ISSUE

Activists distort facts in ‘Climate Change Conversations’ … Peer-reviewed paper finds climate less sensitive than assumed … EU Parliament rejects price hike for carbon emissions … Cato Institute debunks Draft National Climate Assessment … Polar sea ice remains more extensive than long-term average


ACTIVISTS DISTORT FACTS IN ‘CLIMATE CHANGE CONVERSATIONS’

Two scientist-activists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison published an article in Science last week calling for more “Climate Change Conversations,” as the article was titled. Justifying their call for immediate action on global warming, the authors claimed, “The average temperature of Earth is increasing, ice is melting, oceans are acidifying, and extreme weather events are more frequent.” Indeed, more climate change conversations appear to be needed, as the authors presented misleading or flat-out wrong assertions regarding each point. Each of the activists’ assertions is thoroughly debunked in a new article published by Forbes.com.

SOURCE: Forbes


PEER-REVIEWED PAPER FINDS CLIMATE LESS SENSITIVE THAN ASSUMED

Climate models predicting significant future warming “may be too sensitive to perturbations in radiative forcing” and “the equilibrium climate sensitivity is on the low side of the range given in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report,” a team of scientists report in the peer-reviewed Climate Dynamics. Notably, the scientists are not regarded as skeptics and include prominent alarmist Michael Schlesinger.

SOURCE: Watts Up With That? and Climate Dynamics


EU PARLIAMENT REJECTS PRICE HIKE FOR CARBON EMISSIONS

The European Parliament this week rejected a plan to further restrict carbon dioxide emissions, dealing a severe blow to global warming activists. The EU’s rejection of a measure that would impose higher prices on carbon dioxide emissions sends a warning signal to U.S. politicians being pressured by global warming activists to enact a carbon tax in the United States. Even the reliably liberal New York Times admitted the economic punishment of carbon dioxide restrictions, observing, “Most green electricity sources cannot compete with coal and natural gas on their own and require subsidies that are passed on to industry and consumers. The more power they generate, the higher those costs. Direct charges for renewables add about 18 percent to German household electric bills, with indirect costs putting on more.”

SOURCE: Environment & Climate News


CATO INSTITUTE DEBUNKS DRAFT NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT

Scientists working with the Cato Institute thoroughly debunked the federal government’s 2013 Draft National Climate Assessment. The team of scientists, led by Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger, published a 133-page scientific paper documenting serious flaws in all sections of the federal report. “This National Assessment is much closer to pseudoscience than it is to science,” Michaels and Knappenberger conclude.

SOURCE: The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow


POLAR SEA ICE REMAINS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN LONG-TERM AVERAGE

Polar sea ice remains substantially more extensive than the long-term average, satellite measurements show. Northern Hemisphere sea ice is slightly below its average extent since satellites first began measuring sea ice extent in 1979. Southern Hemisphere sea ice, however, is substantially more extensive than the long-term average. For most of 2013 polar sea ice has been above the long-term average, with current polar sea ice more than 500,000 square kilometers above the long-term average.

SOURCE: Cryosphere Today

James M. Taylor

James M. Taylor is managing editor of Environment & Climate News, a national monthly... (read full bio)